COVID-19: Scientists predict end date in UK, USA, Italy, others

Scientists from The Singapore University of Technology innovation lab have used complex modelling to predict the exact date the coronavirus crisis will end in the UK, USA, Italy and other badly-hit countries.

According to the Daily Star, scientists at The Singapore University used the complex modelling to determine when the pandemic could be over globally and the world free of the coronavirus.

The scientists believed by September 30, Covid-19 could be eliminated from Britain

The data shows that the US might be free of the deadly bug by November 11.

Singapore has been highlighted in the prediction as the first nation to be rid of the coronavirus, as July 19 is believed to be the date researcher has released.

Next is Italy, where the crisis is expected to recede by August 12.

A leading professor at Oxford University has forecast that the UK’s declining death rates could reach the stage of no fatalities being recorded on some days by the end of June.

The UK is currently at stage four in the alert system, meaning there is high transmission of Covid-19.  Researchers in Singapore have said the prediction is “uncertain” and could alter with time.  The date is also susceptible to new surges of infections caused by easing lockdown measures and people breaching the rules.

But a spokesperson for the university warned that ‘readers must take any predictions with caution’. They also warned that ‘over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.’

The spokesman added: “The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries.

“Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution.  “Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.”

Separate modelling carried out in Washington and in Oxford has predicted that the UK could first see a 24-hour period with zero deaths from coronavirus by June.  However, it is expected that there will be “sporadic up and downs” for several weeks afterwards.

Professor Carl Heneghan, of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University told The Sun: “I think by the end of June we’ll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if the current trends continue in the deaths.

“But we will continue to have these sporadic up and downs for about four to six weeks.”  It comes after the number of Covid-19 patients to die in the UK rose today by 351 to 36,393, although that rise is far lower than the daily death tolls of over 1,000 recorded in April.

Of the latest confirmed fatalities, 121 occurred in hospitals in England, 24 in Scotland, seven in Wales and three in Northern Ireland.

The youngest victim in England was 41, health bosses confirmed, while three of the 121 had no known underlying health condition.

A further 3,287 people were confirmed to have the virus, the Department of Health and Social Care said, bringing the total number of cases to 254,195 since the start of the pandemic.

-Daily Star

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